84% accurate · 28 calls · 3 wrong

Amazon will show tariff costs as a separate line to shoppers within 28 days.

Who shows the tariff on the receipt

What happened: Amazon said the idea was never approved and would not ship. Rivals kept the cost inside the price instead of itemising it.

The court will find Google liable for monopolising open-web ad tech within 28 days.

Google's ad tech goes to trial

What happened: The ruling landed on 17 April 2025: illegal monopolies in publisher ad servers and exchanges, with remedies pushed to a later phase.

The reciprocal tariff schedule will be paused or renegotiated within 28 days.

Reciprocal tariffs land on every trading partner

What happened: A 90-day pause arrived on 9 April 2025 for most partners, with China excluded. Sourcing plans built on the published schedule had a week of shelf life.

Record wholesale egg prices will hold through the next 28 days.

Egg prices as the new inflation symbol

What happened: Wholesale prices fell hard through late March as flocks recovered and demand cooled. Retail shelves lagged the drop, which is what kept the story alive.

China will impose new export controls on heavy rare earths within 28 days.

China picks its retaliation instrument

What happened: Controls on seven heavy rare earths and magnets followed on 4 April 2025, hitting defence and motor supply chains rather than consumer prices.

The SEC will formally rescind the climate-disclosure rule within 28 days.

The SEC climate rule under a new chair

What happened: The Commission voted on 27 March 2025 to stop defending the rule in court, which killed it in practice. Formal rescission did not happen in the window.

Microsoft will restate its fiscal-year AI capex plan rather than cut it, despite the cancelled-lease report.

Analysts call the top of the AI data-centre build

What happened: Microsoft reaffirmed roughly 80 billion dollars of AI infrastructure spend for the year. Moving leases around was a reshuffle, not a retreat.

No foundation-model diagnostic will clear FDA Class II in the next 28 days, whatever the vendor briefings promise.

Foundation-model diagnostic clearance

What happened: Nothing cleared in the window. The files stayed in the normal device queue on standard review timelines, so procurement had no new option to evaluate.

Salesforce or Adobe will announce a list-price hike or a tighter AI credit meter within 28 days.

Metered AI inside the enterprise suite

What happened: Packaging and credit language tightened on the enterprise side. A clean, dated list-price hike in that exact window did not land.

IM-2 will land upright and complete its planned surface mission.

The second commercial shot at the lunar south pole

What happened: Athena landed on 6 March 2025 inside a crater and ended up on its side. The mission was called off within hours, the same failure mode as the first attempt.

Broadcom will not restore perpetual VMware licensing within 28 days, whatever the customer pressure.

VMware customers push back on Broadcom licensing

What happened: Perpetual licences stayed dead. Broadcom kept the subscription bundles and moved the argument to renewal terms.

The Commission will not announce a 28-day delay that pushes GPAI duties out of 2025.

EU AI Act GPAI clock

What happened: The 2025 GPAI clock held. Industry got guidance, not a calendar reset.

USDA will announce a new federal package on egg supply and avian flu within 28 days.

Avian flu empties the egg aisle

What happened: USDA published a multi-pronged plan on 26 February 2025, roughly a billion dollars across biosecurity, farmer aid and imports.

The Commission will propose delaying and narrowing CSRD rather than repealing it within 28 days.

Brussels reopens the sustainability reporting file

What happened: The Omnibus package of 26 February 2025 pushed reporting waves back and cut scope. The stop-the-clock directive followed in April.

Within 28 days, at least one of OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic will cut reasoning-API list prices or ship a cheaper reasoning SKU.

DeepSeek R1 resets the reasoning-price floor

What happened: Western labs answered with cheaper reasoning tiers and aggressive price cuts in the weeks after R1. The price floor moved.

US export-control action in the next 28 days will stay on chips and tooling, with no binding restriction on shipping model weights.

Export-control overreach after the DeepSeek shock

What happened: No weights restriction landed. Washington kept the perimeter on hardware and tooling, so EU deployment plans did not need rewriting.

No top-five US bank will open a retail bitcoin desk in the next 28 days. ETF wrappers stay the compliant route.

A bank desk for retail bitcoin

What happened: No retail desk opened in the window. New exposure kept arriving through ETF wrappers, which is where the fee pool actually sat.

Congress will not pass a full IRA repeal in the first 28 days of the new administration.

IRA in the first month

What happened: No full repeal cleared Congress in that window. Credit risk stayed in guidance and appropriations, not a statute wipe.

More than 50,000 federal employees will accept the deferred-resignation offer within 28 days.

A buyout offer to the federal workforce

What happened: Roughly 75,000 acceptances were reported on 12 February 2025, above the range most HR commentary expected.

Combined US spot bitcoin ETFs will post at least one week with net inflows above $1B in the next 28 days.

Spot bitcoin ETF flow regime

What happened: Issuer flow tallies cleared the $1B weekly inflow print inside the window. The bid was still institutional, not retail-only.

The US 30-year mortgage rate will stay above 6.5% for the next 28 days.

Mortgage rates after the hold

What happened: Freddie Mac's survey print stayed above 6.5% through the window. The cheap-mortgage relief did not arrive.

The de minimis suspension will be paused or walked back within 28 days.

De minimis ends for China shipments

What happened: A pause landed on 7 February 2025, holding until customs systems could process the volume. The definitive end came in May.

The US DOJ will sue to block or delay the HPE–Juniper close within 28 days.

HPE–Juniper sits in front of DOJ

What happened: DOJ filed on 30 January 2025 to stop the deal. The close slipped into a court fight.

The January 2025 FOMC will hold the funds rate unchanged.

January FOMC after the inauguration

What happened: The Fed held. The statement stayed on patience, not a pre-committed cut.

The next FOMC statement will explicitly pre-commit a March rate cut.

A written March cut

What happened: The Fed kept a door open and stressed data-dependence. It did not pre-commit March in the statement.

TikTok will be back in US service within a week, with enforcement suspended rather than applied.

TikTok goes dark on a Saturday night

What happened: Service returned inside a day and enforcement was set aside. Moving budgets off the platform that week would have been the expensive mistake.

Another major US bank will announce a five-day office mandate within 28 days.

Five days back in the office on Wall Street

What happened: JPMorgan told staff in January 2025 to return five days a week from March. Hybrid policies at that tier stopped being a retention argument.

New Glenn will reach orbit on its first flight but fail to land the booster.

New Glenn's first flight

What happened: The upper stage made orbit on 16 January 2025 and the booster was lost on the return. A second operator in heavy lift, without reuse economics yet.